Commentary: A dangerous escalation - Biden authorizes long-range missiles to Ukraine

On November 18, news media reported the Biden administration authorized sending long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine to be used in the U.S. proxy war against Russia. This is an especially dangerous escalation by the Biden administration, because it simultaneously authorizes U.S.-sponsored missile strikes into pre-2014 Russian territory. This is something the Biden administration had stated was a red line for Russia.

This conflict began not on February 24, 2022, with Russia invading Ukraine, but in February 2014 during the U.S.-backed Euromaidan coup. That coup ousted the democratically elected, and geopolitically neutral Victor Yanukovych. The U.S. repeatedly escalates the conflict with Russia.

Up until recently, the Biden administration did what they could to escalate while maintaining a “gloves on” approach — the US has provided tens of billions of dollars in weapons, but never allowed Ukraine to strike Russian territory, attempting to position Russia as the aggressor and Ukraine as fighting a purely defensive, honorable war for its territorial integrity.

The ATACMS, which stands for Army Tactical Missile System, are tactical ballistic missiles with a range of 300 to 400 kilometers, or 200 to 300 miles, and can be modified to fit a nuclear payload. These missiles cannot reach Moscow, but they can reach the Kursk region, a place where Russia has supposedly stationed 40,000 to 50,000 troops in response to the Ukrainian Kursk offensive which began in August 2024.

These missiles are also capable of reaching a number of civilian targets. Ukraine has shown little restraint when it comes to targeting civilian facilities and infrastructure such as the Crimean Bridge, bridges in Kursk, downtown shopping centers inside Russia, and the bombing of the Nord Stream II pipeline. However, the most dangerous possibility is that Ukraine could target the nuclear reactor in Kursk, a civilian infrastructure target which generates power for the area. This would be deadly for the civilians in Kursk and devastating for the entire region.

According to the New York Times, the U.S. has a low-volume surplus of these missiles currently, and military analysts have commented that U.S. production is not capable of manufacturing said missiles in any high capacity. While the exact number of missiles has not yet been confirmed, it should be understood that such a low number of missiles would be unlikely, if not impossible, to accomplish any military objective, leading to some kind of military victory. If that is true, then what is the overall U.S. objective in sending these missiles at all, so late in the conflict after two years of saying that doing so would be too dangerous an escalation?

If the objective is not military, then it is most likely purely political in nature. Many countries in NATO and the EU have concluded that the possibility of a Ukrainian victory at this point is non-existent. The conflict could continue for months or possibly even years, but the likelihood of Ukraine reconsolidating the four Russian-controlled oblasts — Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson — is a logistical impossibility, let alone Kyiv’s objective of regime change in Moscow, which is a delusional fever dream.

Roughly one month ago President Zelensky offered a “peace plan,” which involved a request to President Biden for Tomahawk missiles. Tomahawk missiles have a range of 2400 kilometers, or 1500 miles, and have the capacity to be fitted with a nuclear payload — these could reach Moscow. Russia has stated that the delivery of these missiles would necessitate a major Russian response, as this would threaten the national survival of the country. Knowing this, Biden told Zelensky this was a non-starter.

Ukraine has already used the ATACMS, which demonstrates that this conflict was never “defensive” to begin with, but rather, as many analysts have stated, has always been a proxy war being waged by NATO and the U.S. against Russia, using Ukrainians as cannon fodder in their geopolitical games. The point was never to “defeat” Russia, but to hurt Russia and set them back militarily and economically, as evidenced by the massive sanctions campaign imposed on Russia beginning in 2022. The most likely reason for Biden to authorize the shipment of ATACMS to Ukraine is to create a situation where it is difficult if not impossible for incoming President Trump to de-escalate the conflict.

Why is this such a dangerous escalation? Up until this point, while it was well known that this is a U.S./ NATO proxy war against Russia, the U.S. was able to maintain a hands-off approach, allowing only Ukrainians and international volunteers to die for the U.S.’s geopolitical aspirations. Officially, this conflict was only between two parties, Ukraine and Russia. But Russian President Vladimir Putin stated shortly after the decision that now that the U.S. is authorizing missile strikes into pre-2014 Russian territory, that all parties involved are now considered to be parties to the conflict. Meaning Russia now officially recognizes the U.S. and NATO to be directly involved in the conflict. This is because successfully using the ATACMS requires U.S. satellite geo-tracking intelligence data, and U.S. personnel to operate the missile system.

The US has over 800 military bases across the world, including in Eastern Europe. Many former Warsaw Pact countries in Eastern Europe are now NATO countries, including those on Russia’s border like Latvia, Estonia and Turkey. Finland was also recently accepted into NATO. All these U.S. military assets, and all NATO countries, are now officially fair game for Russian attacks on NATO military assets. Russia President Putin also stated that Russia would be updating its nuclear doctrine to include the possibility of a nuclear attack against any country waging an attack on Russia that was backed by a nuclear superpower; this means Ukraine.

In conclusion, this is a very dangerous and reckless escalation by Biden that serves no military purpose. It is intended entirely only to serve petty domestic politics and throw a wrench in the spokes of peace for incoming President Trump. Rather than attempt de-escalation or peace negotiations of any kind, President Biden has decided instead to bring the world to the brink of total nuclear war and World War III.

#Opinion #AntiWarMovement #International #Russia #Ukraine