NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend Betting

Opportunities abound for the NFL Divisional Playoff weekend. As we inch closer to the big weekend, be sure to check out the Super Bowl Odds as well. One trend to watch this weekend is home teams in the Divisional Round coming off a bye are on a current run of 33-42-1 against the spread. Both top seeds, Kansas City and Detroit, are entering this weekend of a bye. Are you thinking about hitting a big underdog on the money line this weekend? Stop thinking that way. Divisional playoff underdogs are on a current run of 2-20 straight up. There are some trends that are

Saturday

4:30 pm Eastern: Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5) 41.5

The Chiefs and Texans matched up on December 21^st in Kansas City. The Chiefs came out on top 27-19. The twenty-seven points scored that day by Kansas City was one of the team’s highest point totals for the year as they never scored more than thirty points in a game. One of the keys to that game was that the Chief’s defense held Houston to just 84 yards on the ground, and they held Joe Mixon to just 57 yards.  Mixon had 106 yards for the Texans last week in the Texan’s playoff win against the Chargers, and the Texans as a team had 168 total rushing yards.

The total in this game (41.5) is the lowest of any playoff game that Patrick Mahomes has played.  It’s easily the lowest total for any playoff game thus far. Patrick Mahomes is 8-0 straight up in his career in the wildcard and divisional round. The Chiefs are 0-5-1 against the spread this season when giving more than a touchdown. C.J. Stroud is 10-6 against the spread as an underdog in his career. Stroud is 0-2 in games when the temperature is below 35 degrees.

One of the big factors in this game will be the long rest for Kansas City. Many of their starters have not played since Christmas.  The rust from the layoff and the stingy Houston defense will keep this one closer than the line in a low-scoring affair.

Prediction: Kansas City 20 – Houston 14

8:00 pm Eastern: Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5) 55.5

The Lions are 14-1 straight up in their last 15 games. Detroit dominated Minnesota in the season’s final week to win the NFC North and the top seed in the NFC. Washington went to Tampa in the wildcard round last week and got a last-second field goal to advance to the divisional round. The Commanders have won six straight including the playoff win against the Bucs.

In playoff matchups between the top seed and the six seed, the under is on a 19-5 run. Detroit quarterback Jared Goff is 34-13-1 against the spread in indoor games. The Lions are on a 13-4 run against the spread with extra time off.

The Lions are going to provide this weekend’s most lopsided game. The Commanders will not be able to stay close. This one gets away from Washington early and stays that way throughout.

Prediction: Detroit 42 – Washington 17

Sunday

3:00 pm Eastern: Los Angels Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) 43.5

The Rams travel cross country after having their home playoff game relocated to Arizona last week.  The fires in Los Angeles did nothing to keep the Rams from rolling over the Vikings 27-9. The Ram’s defense has been the story of late. The Rams have not allowed more than nine points in a game where their starters played since December 8^th against Buffalo. Since that game the Rams have allowed 9 points to the 49ers, 9 points to the Jets, 9 points to the Cardinals, and just 9 points to the Vikings last week.

The Eagles were sluggish on offense last week, the first appearance for Jalen Hurts since December22^nd against Washington. Philadelphia’s defense was the reason the Eagles advanced. Philadelphia held Green Bay to just ten points and intercepting Jordan Love three time. The Eagles are 5-1 against the spread at home in the divisional round.

The layoff for Hurts was painfully impactful for Philadelphia last week. Things should improve slightly for the Eagle’s offense this week, but playing the Rams defense will keep the Eagles attack in low gear. The Rams are surging, and they will continue to play well this weekend.

Prediction: Los Angeles 24 – Philadelphia 17

6:30 pm Eastern: Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Buffalo Bills 51.5

The late game on Sunday is the weekend’s most anticipated matchup The Bills dispatched Denver 31-7 last week, while the Ravens rolled over Pittsburgh at home in Baltimore 28-14. The key to this game will be which team plays better against the rush. Baltimore was the league’s top rushing attack (187.6 per game), while Buffalo has the ninth rated rushing offense (131.2 per game). These teams played in week four with the Ravens rolling at home to a 35-10 win.

Lamar Jackson and John Allen have played four times. Jackson holds the edge against the spread at 3-1. The Teams are 2-2 straight up. The Bills are 8-1 over their team total at home this season.

Both Baltimore and Buffalo are better against the run than the pass. Baltimore struggled to the league’s 30^th

Prediction: Ravens 24 – Bills 21

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