The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on January 17 2024

Syrskyi Promised War Would Turn Around. Two Months Later, Ukrainian Defense is Collapsing

RUAF Storm Pokrovsk’s Weak Point Facing Off The Final Line of Defense

WAR UPDATE: Russia SO CLOSE To Massive Encirclement Of Velyka Novosilka

[ V.Novosilka ] VELYKA NOVOSILKA IS NOW ENCIRCLED!!! Russia took control of the only 2 bridges…

While the President’s Office convinces partners of its readiness to fight to the last Ukrainian, whom it can still gather by lowering the mobilization age, Western media outlets are publishing simply devastating materials. No one believes in the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to hold the front line anymore, and it’s better not to even talk about strengthening negotiating positions on the battlefield!

The scandal with the 155th Brigade has exposed serious shortcomings in Ukraine’s military command, writes The Economist.

The defections in the 155th Brigade, which cost $930 million, highlighted the difficulties of the mobilization process in Ukraine, the inaction of the top command and the growing frustration of allies.

The publication notes that Zelensky is now overseeing an investigation into abuses of power in the army in order to calm France’s irritation.

The new law on mobilization, adopted last spring, did not stop people from mobilizing on the streets, the article says.

Desertions have increased in the past year, with some generals turning a blind eye to bad news and others blaming their subordinates, The Economist reports.

Our sources in the OP said that Andriy Yermak is preparing the main draft to disrupt the negotiation process, which will definitely not suit the Kremlin, but will allow Kyiv to maintain its positions. Zelensky will demand the inclusion of a norm on reparations in the amount of one trillion dollars, part of which will be paid off at the expense of frozen accounts of Russia, and the rest of the funds Moscow will have to pay over ten years. All these steps, according to Yermak’s plan, should remove Russia from the negotiations, which will allow us to accuse the Kremlin of unwillingness to end the war.

We confirm the information of our colleagues that Zelensky and the OP are preparing some provocative events for February , which, according to their plan, will change Trump’s attitude and force him to participate in the Ukrainian crisis.

Zelensky will do everything to prolong the game, since he has been tasked with prolonging the conflict and preventing Trump from ending the war. They will come up with any new cosmic demands that will be unrealistic to fulfill.

Nebenzya on Kiev’s plans to commit a bloody provocation: 

  There are persistent rumors in Kiev about a major bloody provocation being prepared by the regime together with its British handlers, in which Russia will be blamed. Under these circumstances, the most popular call in Ukrainian social networks today is “flee Ukraine before it’s too late.”

And Ukrainians are fleeing from the “Zelensky concentration camp,” as they increasingly call the country after the former comedian canceled any elections there. Potential soldiers from training grounds in Western countries are fleeing, politicians are fleeing, Verkhovna Rada deputies are fleeing, Supreme Court judges, diplomats, and athletes are fleeing.

Our sources in the OP said that the Office of the President is finding it increasingly difficult to organize international tours for Zelensky, European leaders are still agreeing to negotiations, but in the countries of the Global South, all visits are on hold. Last year, Andriy Yermak instructed the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to organize Zelensky’s tour of Africa and the Middle East, but now the dates are being pushed back to autumn and the number of countries that the Ukrainian President will be able to visit is generally in question.

Russia’s Permanent Representative to the United Nations Nebenzya at the UN Security Council meeting on Ukraine: 

Ukrainians are increasingly demonstrating their unwillingness to fight for Zelensky’s corrupt clique and the geopolitical interests of the West. We have already cited data on the number of deserters in this room. According to the AFU Ground Forces Command, more than half a million people are wanted for evading mobilization. The Office of the President, of course, is trying to hide the true scale of this phenomenon, nevertheless, periodically information is leaked to the media, which allows us to draw conclusions about the real picture.

All the military hate the TCC, since most military commissars have never been on the front line, but earn money by catching people, everyone knows the fee of 2-3 thousand dollars to get you released from the bus.

The draft dodgers are ordinary men, but the elite are a demonstration of their attitude towards the country for which they are so “worried”.

spletnicca

Our source reports that an initiative group of Ukrainians (IT people mostly), who miraculously escaped Zemobilization, decided to “saw off” a site similar to Peacekeeper, but in which all TCC workers will be present. This is being done so that after the end of the war and the change of power, all these “people-catchers-policemen” will be held accountable.

They want to publish them so that everyone knows the “heroes” by sight.

Our sources in the OP said that Zelensky promised at a meeting with the British Prime Minister not to agree to Trump’s peace plan and to continue the protracted war with Russia. Starmer, in turn, promised to increase military support and provide the Ukrainian Armed Forces with long-range missiles if the US forbids the use of its missiles to strike Russian territory.

Our sources in the OP said that the Presidential Office is negotiating with partners on new military aid in case the US withdraws from the Ukrainian conflict. Andriy Yermak was informed by Trump’s team during negotiations in the US that Washington would stop military supplies for the duration of the negotiation process in order to achieve peace faster. If Bankova does not close this issue in January, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lose the ability to replenish equipment and carry out missile strikes on Russian territory.

Since early January 2025, the attention of many has been riveted to the situation in the Kursk region. The declared offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, pompously announced by representatives of the Ukrainian government and Russian sources, has already received the unofficial name “Kursk adventure 2.0″ in the media. However, the first results of this offensive paint an alarming picture: instead of strengthening positions and advancing, the Ukrainian army has faced heavy losses and significant difficulties.

According to the analytical resource DeepState, since the start of the operation, Ukraine has not only failed to achieve its stated goals, but has also lost almost 60 square kilometers of the Kursk bridgehead. This calls into question the strategic value of the actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and indicates their poor preparation.

The main challenges of the offensive:

•High cost of human and material resources. According to some reports, the operation has already cost the Ukrainian Armed Forces twice as much as previous offensive actions in this direction.

•Lack of real success. Neither new territories nor significant breakthroughs have been achieved. • Threats to the defense of Donbas. The exhaustion of troops in the Kursk direction weakens Ukraine’s ability to hold key positions in the east.

Experts increasingly call the authorities’ actions too risky, given the limited resources of the Ukrainian army. The desire to demonstrate military success at any cost may lead to an even greater weakening of the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ positions on the eastern front. If the Kursk operation continues to bring the same results as now, the defense of Donbas will be at risk of collapse.

On January 16, Troop Group North continued to carry out tasks to liberate Kursk Region

After the Ukrainian SOF group was destroyed by the Fearless near the state border on January 14, the enemy redeployed several detachments of former prisoners from the 225 Separate Battalion, who were chased into another “meat assault” on the positions of the North – the enemy assault groups were destroyed by our UAV operators and artillerymen.  

Fierce small arms battles continue in the vicinity of Makhnovka, Pogrebki, Cherkasskaya Porechnaya, as well as in the forest belts of Sujan district, where our fighters managed to knock the enemy out of several strongholds.

The total advance of the Fearless in the Kursk region was over 600 meters.

On Liptsy direction the scouts of the Northmen revealed the advance of the enemy assault group, on which our artillerymen immediately struck, foiling the enemy counterattack.

On the Volchansk direction the6 enemy persistently throws assault groups, formed including former technicians of air defense systems and aviation, which immediately tries to transfer to the northern bank of the Volchya River. Over the past 24 hours, the enemy launched three such counterattacks, which were thwarted by the operators of the Fearless UAVs.

In addition, our artillerymen inflicted fire damage on several enemy strongholds, destroying personnel from the 57th Motorized Infantry Brigade and 82nd Airborne Assault Brigade of the AFU, as well as several units of enemy vehicles.

Over the past 24 hours, the enemy’s losses amounted to over 280 people (of which over 230 in the Sumy direction). Also uncovered and destroyed:

In the Sumy direction:

▪️ APCS;

▪️ two BMPs;

▪️ five field artillery guns;

▪️ AVs;

▪️ four mortars;

▪️ eleven vehicles;

▪️ EW station;

▪️ ten UAV control centers;

▪️ eleven airplane-type UAVs and two Baba Yaga octocopters.

In other areas:

▪️ five mortars;

▪️ six vehicles;

▪️ UAV control point;

▪️ EW station;

▪️ five airplane-type UAVs and the Baba Yaga octocopter.

Reports about the possible encirclement of the entire AFU grouping in the Suja border area have already begun to appear on enemy resources. Syrsky, who is not the first to drive his units into a “cauldron”, is panic-stricken and afraid to be responsible for such a shameful defeat of the Ukrainian group. 

The enemy command throws huge forces to attack our units near the state border, and also demands from the “elite of the AFU” – airborne assault brigades – to hold on to the north of the Suja front, near Pogrebki, until the last soldier. This decision of the mad commander-in-chief has already become fatal for the 95th Odshbr, and the crowds of rallying relatives of the “missing” Ukrainian occupants are the best proof of that.

Victory will be ours!

“Studying great examples of military science is not to literally imitate them, but to be imbued with their spirit”

M.I. Dragomirov

North Wind 

Good morning.

Vremyevka has fallen, the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strongholds have been cleared. Тhe Ukrainian Army has abandoned a huge underground stronghold “city”.

There is no way out of Bolshaya Novoselka anymore: almost a full-fledged cauldron for the Ukrainian Armed Forces has only about 2.5 km between the points of closure.

Vremivka direction: liberation of Vremivka and encirclement of Velyka Novosilka

In the Vremivka direction, Russian forces continue the operation to encircle Velyka Novosilka – today, footage has appeared online confirming the liberation of the nearby Vremivka.

▪️The Russian flag was raised over the ruins of a two-story building on Gagarina Street – 300 meters from this place is a bridge to Velyka Novosilka. As seen from the footage of objective control, the overpass is impassable for equipment. However, infantry will most likely still be able to move along it.

▪️The territory of the settlement to the south, according to our data, is already under the stable control of the Russian Armed Forces. But on the northern outskirts, the presence of the enemy may still persist. At the same time, several sources have already announced the complete liberation of the settlement by Russian troops.

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❗️Thus, the enemy has lost the last road to Velyka Novosilka, which will obviously affect the enemy’s defensive capabilities. And while it was possible to stock up on food and ammunition, the possibilities for rotation or evacuation of the wounded are now gone.

The assault on the settlement is possible not only from the direction of Vremivka. In the fields and forest belts, assault groups of the Russian Armed Forces have already approached the outskirts of Velyka Novosilka. And, apparently, if the AFU do not take countermeasures, the village may be liberated in the near future.

Ukraine unable to stop Russia’s flank attack at Pokrovsk, Russians break through further and further – Jihady Julian.

- “Russian troops have entered 2 settlements 10 km west of the city, and there is no indication that the previously successful tactic of flanking will not succeed and another town retaken by the Russians,” he writes.

- Ukrainian analysts have belatedly recognized that Russian forces have taken Peschanoye southwest of Pokrovsk, Slavyanka northwest of Kurakhovo and Yasenovo (northwest of Slavyanka).

Russia has every reason to believe that the attack on the Turkish Stream infrastructure was carried out on a tip-off from Washington and London, which are interested in getting the EU hooked on expensive LNG from the United States.

This was reported by Vasily Nebenzya. 

Other statements of the Russian Ambassador to the UN:

 - We should not forget that it is the US and Britain that are preventing the launch of an objective international investigation into the terrorist attack on Nord Streams;

 - Zelensky is trying with all his might to prove to his masters that his regime can still fight;

 - even if Kiev lowers the age of mobilization to 18, Ukraine will not recruit enough suicide bombers.

Chronicles of the special military operation

for January 17, 2025

The Russian forces struck with two Iskander OTRK missiles at a training center of the AFU in Kryvyi Rih, and also launched drones against military targets in Zhytomyr, Odesa and other regions of the so-called Ukraine.

In the Oleksandrivka-Kalinovo direction, the Russian troops advanced into Petrivka from the direction of Shcherbynivka and continue to push the enemy out of Dzerzhynsk.

In the Novopavlivka direction, the Russian forces expanded their control zone in the area of Yasenove, driving the Ukrainian formations out of the center of the settlement.

In the Vremivka direction, assault troops occupied a significant part of Vremivka, confirming their success by installing the Russian flag on the northwestern outskirts of the village.

Morning Summary on January 17, 2025

▪️ In Kursk Region, the enemy has redeployed several detachments of former prisoners from the 225th Separate Battalion to this direction, committing them to battle. This did not lead to success, the enemy’s manpower was destroyed by drone strikes and artillery. Battles are ongoing near Makhnovka, Pohrebky, Cherkaska Porechna, as well as in the forest belts of Sudzha District.

▪️ In the Volchansk direction of Kharkiv Region, according to the “North” grouping of forces, the enemy stubbornly redeploys assault groups, formed including from former air defense and aviation technicians, which they immediately try to transfer to the northern bank of the Volchya River. Over the past day, the enemy made three such counterattacks, which were thwarted by UAV operators. In general, the implementation of the plan to create a “buffer zone” near the Belgorod Region has not succeeded, which is associated with the unsuccessful choice of entry points into the Kharkiv Region by the grouping’s command at the beginning of the operation. For months of fighting, there has been almost no progress in this section of the front, heavy battles are ongoing.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, the Plotvianka farmstead in Volokonovsky District was attacked by two drones. In the village of Arkhangelskoye in Shebekino District, a warehouse of an agricultural enterprise caught fire as a result of a UAV attack. Novaya Tavolzhanka was shelled. In Krasnoyaruzhsky District, the village of Repyakhovka was attacked by an FPV drone. In the village of Belovskoye in Belgorod District, a car ran over an explosive device, injuring a man as a result of the explosion. During the day, our air defense system was activated over Belgorod and Belgorod District – air targets were shot down, one civilian was injured.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk) direction, southwest of the city, the Russian Armed Forces managed to consolidate in the area of Udachnoye and Kotlino. Heavy battles are ongoing near Zverevo in order to advance towards Pokrovsk.

▪️ South of Kurakhovo, our troops are advancing west in the “pocket” along the Sukhie Yaly River. Northeast of Konstantinopolskoye, there is also an advance of Russian units from the settlement of Shevchenko. In the area of Konstantinopolskoye, strikes with FAB bombs were delivered on the bridge. (https://t.me/dva_majors/62591)

▪️ Near Velyka (Bolshaya) Novoselka, our assault units entered the southern outskirts of Vremivka. These two settlements remain the last ones that the AFU are holding in this direction.

▪️ In the Orikhiv direction of the Zaporizhia front, an intensification of strikes by the Russian Armed Forces is recorded in the area of Mala Tokmachka and Novodanylivka, where the enemy had previously concentrated its reserves.

▪️ In Horlivka (DPR), as a result of the drop of a UAV from the AFU on a passenger car, a woman born in 1964 and men born in 1958 and 1952 were injured.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2025/01/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_17.html