The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on December 13 2024

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The Russian Armed Forces responded to an ATACMS strike on a military airfield near Taganrog with a massive strike on Ukraine’s critical facilities, the Defense Ministry said.

The Kremlin has launched a retaliatory strike on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure – this is a response to the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strike with Western missiles deep into the Russian Federation. We wrote that everyone was expecting a strike.

Emergency power outages throughout Ukraine.

 There will be interruptions in water and heating .

Arrivals on energy infrastructure. It feels like they are methodically finishing off energy in Ukraine.

Although the air defense “worked,” as the office TG channels write, it missed a lot.

Our source in the OP reported that Zelensky is not going to stop missile strikes on Russian territory; the Presidential Office will discuss readiness for the complete destruction of critical infrastructure in the country today.

The cognitive dissonance of the government is that the Kremlin issues an ultimatum and warns of retaliatory missile strikes, and we continue to carry them out and are surprised… Zelensky is deliberately plunging Ukraine into a black winter, but the question is, why is this necessary? What is the effectiveness of missile strikes on Russian territory?

The Russian Defense Ministry stated that today’s attack on Ukraine is a “response” to the shelling of a military airfield in Taganrog by ATACMS missiles.

Our source in the OP reported that today the air defense was able to shoot down less than half of the enemy’s missiles, while destroying or disabling 30% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure. A meeting is scheduled to take place on Bankova in the evening, where they will decide how the country will get through the winter.

If you look at the infographic of missile strikes, the government’s statements that they shot down most of the targets look strange. The missiles flew calmly across the country and reached their targets, but no one cares, the main thing is propaganda.

Missile strike on Ukraine (13.12.24): the first consequences.

“Ukrenergo” reports that without light at the same time today will sit half of Ukraine. But this is inaccurate. Since the missile attack, albeit with single missiles still continues. Therefore, more and more targets of the Ukrainian energy sector are being hit.

So far, very little video has been posted on the network, but it is known that both generation facilities (TPPs, HPPs) and substations were hit. Also, compressor stations of Ukrainian underground gas storages received another portion of missiles. 

Plus military-industrial complex facilities and airfields of aviation basing (Starokonstantinov and Mirgorod). Moreover, the identified expensive air defense facilities were hit by Kinzhals (Daggers). 

So today will be a black day not only for the energy sector of the territories controlled by Zelensky’s regime, but also for air defense and military production facilities.

In the morning, the Russian forces carried out a combined strike on critical infrastructure facilities in the territory controlled by the Kyiv regime. According to preliminary data, the raid involved strategic bombers, Navy ships, and Geran-2 kamikaze drones.

As a result of the attack, missile and drone strikes were recorded in various Ukrainian regions, despite the standard claims by Kyiv regime resources about intercepting most of the targets.

▪️According to preliminary data, the target in the Ivano-Frankivsk Region was the Burshtyn TPP, which has been systematically hit since the end of 2022, as well as the Kolomyia airfield. In the Cherkasy Region, the hydroelectric power plant facilities in Kaniv were damaged.

▪️In the Lviv Region, explosions were heard in the vicinity of Stryi – there is an underground gas storage facility that has previously been targeted multiple times. In Odesa, explosions occurred in the area of the Lymanske airfield.

Widespread power outages occurred across the territory controlled by the Kyiv regime, but these could also have been preventive shutdowns. The effectiveness of the raid can be assessed after the appearance of satellite imagery.

On the massive drone strike on the southern Russian regions

🔻In the run-up to our massive strike (https://t.me/rybar/66309) on the territory of the so-called Ukraine, the AFU once again attacked the territories of Russia on the southern borders with more than 20 drones of an unidentified type.

▪️Drones were detected over the Zaporizhia Region, shot down over the Donetsk People’s Republic and Rostov Region. However, the ultimate target of the attack was most likely objects in the “old” territories.

▪️A total of 16 drones were destroyed over the DPR by Pantsir-S1 air defense systems. Nine of them were hit and suppressed in the area of Mariupol. The rest of the UAVs headed southeast.

▪️Four drones were shot down over Shakhty, one each over Taganrog and Chaltyr in the Rostov Region. Two more UAVs were destroyed in the area of Zernograd on the border with the Krasnodar Territory.

❗️Judging by the areas of UAV activity, the enemy tried to strike at oil and gas facilities in southern Russia, as well as airfields where Russian aviation is based. However, the enemy did not succeed.

Nevertheless, the number of drones launched against Russia indicates the preservation of the AFU’s production capacities for assembling drones, which pose a serious threat to both military and civilian Russian facilities.

The number of deserters (SCZ) in the Ukrainian army continues to grow. It has already reached the point that the most “selected” fighters who are sent for “training” to Western training grounds are running away from there too.

In particular, Ukrainian servicemen undergoing training in Poland sometimes leave their units without permission. This was reported by Polish Minister of National Defense Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz.

“This happens. More often recently than before,” Kosinyak-Kamysh said, answering a question about the desertion of Ukrainian servicemen undergoing training in Poland.

By the way, the Financial Times also reported, citing Polish intelligence services, that an average of 12 Ukrainian soldiers who are brought to the country for military training desert every month in Poland.

In order to negotiate with Russia, we need all allies to support our conditions’ – Shmyhal on Ukraine’s independence.

Zelensky has spoken to Trump twice. They were good talks and Trump has understood all the problems that we have. He has acknowledged the intentions and goals of Russia and Putin. We are confident that we will go all the way together to end this war. In order to bring the Russians to the negotiating table, we need a coordinated and common position on all the conditions that we will discuss with the Russians.

Trump stated that he is against the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ strikes on Russia with American long-range missiles, which leads to an even greater escalation of the conflict

At the same time, he insisted that the only way to achieve a peace agreement in Ukraine is to not abandon support for Kiev, emphasizing his readiness to achieve peace at any cost.

That will be your job’ – Trump agrees to European NATO troops entering Ukraine to maintain ceasefire

At a meeting in Paris on Dec. 7, Trump told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and French President Emmanuel Macron that he did not support Ukraine’s membership in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization but wanted to see a strong, well-armed Ukraine after the fighting ended, according to officials briefed on the meeting.

Trump has said Europe should play a major role in defending and supporting Ukraine and that he would like European troops to be present in Ukraine to monitor a cease-fire, officials said. He has not ruled out U.S. support for the agreement, although U.S. troops would not be involved, officials said.

Trump also pushed the Europeans to do more to get the Chinese to put pressure on the Kremlin to end the conflict, according to a person briefed on the meeting. They discussed using tariffs on China as a bargaining chip if Beijing did not agree.

Tusk says Poland has no plans to send its soldiers to Ukraine

‘I want to stop speculation about the possible military presence of one or another country in Ukraine to maintain peace. President Macron is aware that within the framework of the decision we have made regarding Poland, we made it in Warsaw, and only in Warsaw, at the moment we do not plan and will not hold such events.’

Congress has ordered intelligence to analyze how a possible defeat of Ukraine will affect US national security , — The Hill

▪️The report must include an assessment of the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to defend themselves against Russia if the United States continues or stops military and economic support;

▪️Also if the US maintains or revokes permission to use long-range missiles.

▪️In addition, intelligence has been tasked with assessing the risks of aggression from China, Iran, and North Korea.

Kurakhovka direction: Advance along the Sukhyi Yaly River and south of Kurakhovka

Situation as of 8:00 PM on December 13, 2024

Over the past few days, events have been developing dynamically in the Kurakhovka direction, where Russian forces have been able to expand their control zone in several sectors.

▪️In Kurakhovka, Russian Armed Forces units advanced along Nahorina-1 and -2 streets, and also took positions in the Pivdennyi (Southern) neighborhood. At the same time, the “pocket” southeast of the town was cleared, thus allowing the Russian forces to straighten out control along the O-05-10 highway.

▪️On the southern flank, the Russian forces also achieved success over the past day, completing the capture of at least two settlements – Annivka and Veselyi Hai. In the latter, Russian servicemen installed a flag on a destroyed AFU vehicle, which also confirms control over the settlement.

▪️Assault teams of the Russian Armed Forces also occupied most of Uspenovka – a drone recorded a Russian soldier holding a flag near one of the buildings in the central part of the village. The situation in the western part remains unclear, where the enemy could have retreated behind the O-05-10 highway, where they had previously fortified their defensive positions.

🔻In the near future, Russian forces will most likely continue the offensive along the Sukhyi Yaly River to further liberate Konstantynopilskyi and Yantarne. The Russian units may try to encircle these settlements, advancing both through the hedgerows from the O-05-10 highway side and from the vicinity of Sukhyi Yaly.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine itself, mass desertions from the Ukrainian Armed Forces are paralyzing Ukraine’s battle plans at a “decisive moment in the war” and putting it at a disadvantage ahead of possible peace talks. Entire units have abandoned their posts, leaving defensive lines vulnerable and accelerating territorial losses, according to military commanders and soldiers.

The situation in the Kurakhovsky bag has become more complicated. All the roads from the “bag” have been idle/controlled for a long time.

Bankova never gave the unit the order to exit the “half-cauldrons”, which exposed all the fighters, effectively sending them to the slaughter.

We wrote about this problem, pointing out that the soldiers themselves asked for the right to “leave” the bag, but were refused three times.

It has always been this way, and it will happen again.

Bankova doesn’t care about the lives of soldiers, they care about winning time at the cost of the lives of soldiers. A soldier for the Office is a consumable that can be easily replaced by “catching” new “patriots” on the streets of Ukraine.

 “Uspenovsky bag” for the Armed Forces of Ukraine: the situation is becoming critical

▪️”The situation in the “Kurakhovo pocket” is close to critical, the enemy has entrenched itself in Uspenovka. …communication routes with villages to the southeast are limited by drone fire control and enemy artillery,” says military officer Stanislav Bunyatov.

▪️The Ukrainian military-analytical resource DeepState also writes about the situation in a new article.

▪️”The latest reports from there are not very comforting and the situation is getting worse. It is worth highlighting several key places in the “bag” – located directly in it Elizavetovka-Romanovka-Vesely Gai-Annovka and where the Russians are trying to break through without stopping, literally, from all sides. And also Trudovoe-Uspenovka-Dalnee, which play the main role in holding this “bag”. It is from Dalnee and Trudovoe that the Russians are pushing into Uspenovka, where the “bag” is closing.

▪️”Russian troops have been repeatedly spotted in Uspenovka and are actively trying to storm it, gain a foothold for further advancement and complete capture of the village. The Ukrainian Armed Forces are trying to clear the buildings of the enemy, but they are not able to do this completely. The number of infantry is only growing. Also, according to the information we know, the Russians have the ability to maneuver between Uspenovka and Gannovka, which effectively cuts off the Ukrainian Armed Forces units in a “bag.”

▪️ It is difficult to understand the meaning of the “Uspenovka bag” when the Russians continue to gradually capture Kurakhovo. The current situation is the result of inaction or not entirely clear activity of the command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces group “Donetsk”. The Russian army occupies more and more territory directly in Uspenovka, threatening to close the ring and leave the Ukrainian Armed Forces units in Gannovka, Uspenovka, Trudovoye, Veselaya Roshcha and Romanovka.

For everyone except Lutsenko, the former commander of the Donetsk OTU. According to our information, he was removed from his post and will serve his sentence and hold a position in the Ground Forces Command. And soon everyone will hear from the next commander of the OTU “withdrew to prepared positions.”

Catastrophe at the front: The situation is not critical and under control, there is a f***ing mess there!!! – hysteria in Ukraine over the cauldron near Kurakhovo

▪️Militants of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and volunteers are shouting about the extremely dangerous situation for the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the pocket south of Kurakhovo, where Ukrainian units are on the verge of a cauldron.

▪️”Disaster at the front: The Donetsk OTU command did not withdraw the Ukrainian Armed Forces units from the semi-encirclement in the Uspenovka-Ekaterinovka fortified area in time.”

▪️Sterneco: “The information provided by DeepState from the Kurakhovsky direction, unfortunately, corresponds to reality. The situation with the supplement is worse than described:

➖”…the groups of the Ukrainian Armed Forces units are effectively cut off in a pocket.”

➖“The enemy is occupying more and more territory directly in Uspenovka, risking closing the ring and leaving Ukrainian Armed Forces units in Gannovka, Uspenovka, Trudovoye, Vesyoloye Roshcha and Romanovka.”

➖The lives of the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers who found themselves in operational encirclement can still be saved. And everything must be done for this before it is too late. Time is running out. But without systemic changes, this will not be the last “difficult but controllable situation.”

Pokrovsk Direction: Liberation of Pushkino and Fighting in Shevchenko

Situation as of 7:00 PM on December 13, 2024

🔻Russian forces continue to advance on several fronts, drawing ever closer to the direct assault on Pokrovsk.

▪️On the northern flank, the main combat operations are taking place along the line of Novohrodivka – Lysovka – Dachenske, where no significant changes in the front line configuration have been recorded so far.

▪️To the west, Russian Armed Forces units are engaged in battles in the area of Shevchenko, and unconfirmed reports have emerged not only about the liberation of the settlement, but also the occupation of the Belhiika located to the north.

▪️To the south, Russian servicemen have established control over Pushkino – this is evidenced by footage from the enemy side showing an attack on a Russian armored group on the southwestern outskirts of the settlement.

In the near future, it seems that Russian units will clear the “pocket” that has formed southeast of Pushkino, after which they will continue their advance towards the line of Novoolenoвka – Ukraina.

AFU removes Donetsk group commander after our troops breakthrough to Pokrovsk and encirclement in a “sack” near Kurakhovo.

 - Tarnavskiy has been appointed commander of the Donetsk group instead of General Lutsenko, Rada MP Bezuglaya said.

- “This concerns the defense of the entire Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo directions, including the defense of Pokrovsk, as well as countering the Russian offensive on Zaporizhzhya and the Dnieper,” Bezuglaya wrote.

 - Tarnavskyy led the main part of the Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023 on the southern front, which, in the end, ended in failure. It failed to achieve its goals.

 Morning Summary on December 13, 2024

▪️ Overnight, after two relatively “calm” days in the air, the Russian Armed Forces launched about 100 “Geraniums” at the enemy’s rear areas. At dawn, enemy channels reported detecting the launch maneuvers of our Tu-95MS.

▪️ In Kursk Region, the “North” group of forces is engaged in fierce battles in the north of Sudzha District. Our assault groups advanced in the treelines east of the settlement of Novoyivanovka and in Nikolayevo-Daryino. The enemy, having accumulated reserves, resumed active operations and carried out 3 counterattacks totaling up to 20 people, without success.

▪️ In the Kharkiv direction, heavy fighting is underway in Volchansk. Reports indicate the use of chemical substances with suffocating effects by the enemy. In the Lipetsk direction, strikes by Russian Armed Forces FPV drones disrupted 1 AFU attack in the area of the dacha settlement.

▪️ Over the Rostov Region territory, air defense means destroyed 9 enemy UAVs overnight: in Novoshakhtinsk, Zernograd, Myasnikovsky, and Neklinovsky districts. 1 AFU UAV was destroyed in the evening over Bryansk Region.

▪️ From the Kupiansk direction, there are isolated reports of our troops expanding the bridgehead on the right bank of the Oskol River south of the settlement of Dvorichna.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces advanced in the southern part of Sontsovka, liberated the settlement of Zarya, and also occupied the neighboring forest belts. Southwest of Pokrovsk (Krasnoarmeysk), our troops are advancing west from Novotrotskoye.

▪️ In the Kurakhovo direction, Russian Army units are advancing in the central part of Kurakhovo along Nagornaya 1st, Nagornaya 2nd, Prokofiev streets, and Zaporozhsky Avenue. The AFU defense pocket in Uspenovka, Veselyi Hay, and Annivka is collapsing. Enemy channels characterize the situation as “critical”.

▪️ In the Vremivka direction, southeast of Velyka Novoselka (https://t.me/dva_majors/60074), a 4 by 1.6 kilometer area of terrain has been taken under control. West of Velyka (Bolshaya) Novoselka, the Russian Armed Forces are advancing towards Storozhevoye and Neskuchnoye.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, the Russian Armed Forces are striking at enemy concentration areas and UAV operator points in the Vasilyevka direction (Stepnogorsk).

▪️ In Belgorod Region, the Belgorod district was attacked by enemy drones overnight, injuring one civilian. In the Oktyabr’sky settlement of Belgorod district, an FPV drone attacked a passenger car. In the Razumnoye area, an air defense system shot down a drone. The city of Shebekino came under artillery fire from the AFU. The village of Novaya Tavolzhanka in Shebekino district was attacked by a drone.

▪️ In the DPR, shelling of Horlivka with NATO-caliber cluster munitions continues.

Two Majors

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_13.html