Three Takes On Hezbollah’s Defeat

#1 Avi Issacharoff: Hezbollah can only claim Pyrrhic victory, but the real one is Israel’s

This time around, Hezbollah is in no position to claim they’ve “captured the flag.” While it’s possible that a spokesperson for the organization might step forward with bold-faced lies about a supposed victory, the reality is clear to most Lebanese citizens – whether Shiite, Sunni, or from other communities – that Hezbollah suffered a devastating defeat in the recent conflict.

This loss goes beyond the elimination of key figures, including Hassan Nasrallah, his deputy, and other senior members of Hezbollah’s Jihad Council. It also includes the highly effective “pager operation,” which, almost overnight, exposed Hezbollah’s vulnerabilities and left the organization weakened and exposed….

Criticism of the current agreement with Lebanon and Hezbollah is valid in principle. Once the cease-fire takes effect, Hezbollah will undoubtedly resume its reconstruction efforts, while Iran will likely attempt to funnel funds and weaponry to the group by any means possible. This raises a critical question: will Israel act decisively to prevent Hezbollah’s next military buildup, or will it hesitate, as it has over the past 17 years?…

Israel has learned its lesson from the 17 years when it allowed Hezbollah to build up its strength. For the IDF, there will be no going back to the status quo antebellum. At the first sign of any violation of this 60-day ceasefire, or of the permanent one likely to follow once this first one has expired, the IDF will come down like a ton of bricks. It has no intention of repeating its earlier, most costly error.

#2. Ben-Dror Yemini: IDF’s achievements against Hezbollah are tremendous and we should talk about it

…Israel followed a lax policy from the moment the violations of Resolution 1701 began, already a decade and a half ago. This is exactly what intensified the threat facing Israel from the north. What was in the past could not last.

The first violations already began on Wednesday, with an influx of Lebanese, mainly Shiites, some of whom may be Hezbollah members, to the southern Lebanese villages. Four Hezbollah members have already been arrested. Others were deterred with shots fired into the air.

We did not deal a heavy blow to Hezbollah, and we did not reach a cease-fire in order to return to what was. The pattern of relations between Israel and Hezbollah will be determined in these hours and days. And if Israel does not make it clear that the games are over – and they are not going back to the past – Hezbollah may realize that it is allowed to continue.

The achievements of the IDF are tremendous. They must not be overstated. Israel is in a position of strength. We lost this strength once because of a conciliatory approach. It must not happen again.

Despite Hezbollah’s hollow boast of its “victory” over Israel, the people of Lebanon know better. They have seen the immense destruction of over 1,000 weapons storehouses, the devastation of 1,600 command enters, the 4,000 Hezbollah members killed, the 155,000 weapons confiscated, the reduction of its rocket arsenal to 20% of what it was on October 7, 2023, and its drone arsenal to 30% of what it had been.

#3. Wall Street Journal Editorial: Hizbullah’s Ceasefire Is a Victory for Israel

Israeli hard power has secured what 11 months of soft words from Biden envoys could not: Hezbollah’s agreement to abandon Hamas. Iran’s terrorist proxy in Lebanon resumed firing rockets at Israel on Oct. 8, 2023, and it had pledged to continue until Israel conceded to Hamas’s demands. Tuesday’s cease-fire deal marks Hezbollah and Iran’s retreat under fire from that pledge.

The deal is no panacea, and it may prove fragile. Some fighting could restart as Hezbollah tries to rearm in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Armed Forces have agreed to prevent that, with a U.S.-led committee adjudicating compliance. But behind these polite fictions and paper commitments lies the real achievement of the war: a change in the balance of power.

Hezbollah had been deterring Israel. Even as the terrorists expanded their arsenal, fired on northern Israeli towns and ultimately forced more than 60,000 Israelis from their homes, Israel feared escalation. Hezbollah might launch thousands of missiles a day and topple buildings in Tel Aviv. The threat of an Oct. 7-style raid on the Galilee loomed….

Israel has decisively defeated Hezbollah, confiscating 155,000 weapons, killing 4,000 combatants , and reducing its stockpile of drones to 30%, and of rockets to 20%, of their prewar levels. It would take years for Hezbollah to replace all the weaponry it has lost, even if it were free from Israeli attack. But it won’t be free from Israeli attack. Prime Minister Netanyahu has promised that if Hezbollah violates the agreement, no matter how minor that violation might be, the IDF will immediately attack. As Netanyahu said in his latest address to the nation, under the ceasefire “we maintain full freedom of military action. If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to rebuild terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck carrying rockets, we will attack.”

The three takes just above on Hezbollah’s defeat — amidst the group’s absurd claims of “victory” — from two military journalists and the senior editors at the Wall Street Journal make clear the amplitude of the spectacular victory that has devastated Iran’s most powerful proxy, the one that Tehran always assumed would act as a powerful deterrent to any Israeli attack on the Islamic Republic. Now Hezbollah lies prostrate, weaker today than at any time in its existence. And Israel is in a better strategic position than it has ever been, having crushed Hamas, reduced Hezbollah to a shadow of its antebellum self, largely destroyed the Yemeni port of Hodeidah that the Houthis rely on for weapons deliveries from Iran, and destroyed as well Iran’s missile defenses, its ballistic missile plants, and a nuclear research facility.