Hotcold Take: 14 Million Americans Could Maybe Might Sink In 76 Years

Remember, this is all Science! Especially with all the bets hedging while using the world “may”

14 Million Americans May Sink Within 76 Years

It’s not good news for 14 million Americans living on the southeast Atlantic coast. In a new study published in Nature Climate Change—led by Patrick Barnard from the U.S. Geological Survey’s Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center in Santa Cruz, California—a team of experts wrote that the area running from Norfolk, Virginia, to Miami faces plenty more risks than simple coastal flooding as a result of several interconnected climate change-driven factors.

Basically, water is going up, land is going down, weather is going wild, and none of it is good news. (snip)

Assuming a conservative 3.2 feet of sea level rise by 2100—according to data from the United Nations published earlier this year, the current rate of sea level rise indicates that we should expect to see that figure at a minimum—the study authors wrote that more than 70 percent of residents in the southeast Atlantic coast of the United States will experience shallow and emerging groundwater, a danger 15 times greater than daily flooding from surface water. With groundwater potentially affecting more than 70 percent of coastal residents and innundating $1 trillion worth of property, it will create difficulty throughout municipalities, making the maintenance of everything from roads and building stability and septic systems and utilities significantly more difficult.

“Assuming”? There’s no doubt that there is sea rise, something expected during a Holocene warm period, as well as land subsiding. In Virginia, Sewells Point is one of the best long term gauges for Virginia, which sees 1.57 feet per 100 years. A little on the high end of expected sea rise during a Holocene warm period, but, it encompasses land going down. So, not 3.2 feet in less than 76 years as a “conservative” measure.

Virginia Key, an island right off the coast of Miami which is a park and has the Miami Seaquarium, no businesses or residents, is at 1.04 feet per 100 years, on the low end of expected sea rise during a warm period. Charleston, sort of in the middle, is at 1.14 feet per 100 years. There’s not one longterm gauge between Norfolk and Miami which is even close to a “conservative” 3.2 feet per 100 years.

Land sinking may not be the first thought that comes up when thinking about the impacts of climate change, but its a serious concern. According to data from NASA, many parts of the southeast Atlantic coast are sinking between 1 and 2 millimeters per year as part of a major glacial isostatic adjustment occurring deep underground. Compounding upon changes in land levels—especially in coastal areas of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina—are dams blocking sediment that would have otherwise replenished coastal lands. Without that sediment, soils compact. And sink.

“Subsidence is a pernicious, highly localized, and often overlooked problem in comparison to global sea level rise,” Leonard Ohenhen, a geophysicist at Virginia Tech, said in a statement, “but it’s a major factor that explains why water levels are rising in many parts of the eastern U.S.”

Did mankind’s use of fossil fuels cause the end of the last glacial age 20,000 years ago? It would be mankind’s fault for the dams reducing sediment, but, there aren’t that many. And that would not be anthropogenic climate change.

The Nature study used geospatial data and a variety of modeling tools, including the Coastal Storm Modeling System, to project potential coastal hazard impacts, highlighting the risks associated with a range of interconnected conditions.

Surprise! Computer models. Cult in, cult out. But, how can they predict what will happen 76 years from now when they cannot even get a 7 day forecast right? It was supposed to be 61 and rainy today in Raleigh 7 days ago. Now the prediction is 69 and rainy.

Oh, and let’s not forget all the rich folks and politicians pushing this who buy beach houses.

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