Argentina: A Phoenix Rises

This post Argentina: A Phoenix Rises appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

By the early 1900s, Argentina was in a golden age. It rose to become a top 10 nation in global wealth.

The country had a top-notch railway system, rich agricultural yields, bountiful mineral wealth, and a high-growth economy.

Its middle class grew by leaps and bounds. Laissez-faire capitalism had done wonders for the country.

Following the Great Depression in 1929, everything changed.

The state took over economic planning. Social and welfare programs were dramatically expanded. Industries were nationalized. Government spending soared.

As wealth was redistributed, corruption spread like a plague.

A long period of instability followed, extending up until today.

There were 7 military coups in Argentina during the 20th century. Much of the time the economy was in shambles. Inflation spiraled out of control, often surpassing 100% annually.

The past 8 decades have been a very difficult period for Argentinians.

A Chainsaw Massacre (For Bureaucracy)

Things have finally begun to look up for Argentina. In December of 2023, President Javier Milei took office and began a libertarian reform program.

The shift is reflected in the country’s stock market, as shown by the chart below. It shows the price of ARGT, the largest Argentina ETF, since its launch in 2011.

Source: Yahoo Finance

As you can see, Argentine stocks were basically flat for an entire decade (priced in US dollars). But since Milei took over, shares have more than doubled as foreign investment flooded into the country.

What has Milei done to change Argentina’s path so dramatically? In October, Daily Reckoning contributor Joel Bowman explained in The Greatest Political Experiment of Our Age:

• Slashed the number of government ministries in half, from 18 to 9
• Ended all state funding for “media” (propaganda) outlets
• Halted all public infrastructure projects not already underway
• Abolished entire divisions and subdivisions of the vast administrative state
• Ended all fuel and energy subsidies
• Quashed meddlesome import/export regulations
• And put tens of thousands of government workers, known here as “gnocchis,” on notice.

All of that was within the first 48 hours of his presidency. Milei has taken a metaphorical chainsaw to government spending.

The country just emerged from recession, and its public sector has posted a financial surplus for the first time since 2008.

Impressively, inflation is down from a recent high of 25% per month to 2.5% in the most recent data.

Not All Sunshine

Change of this magnitude is not easy. I have spoken with a few Argentine friends recently, and every one of them has a story about people they know getting fired from their government jobs.

Argentina’s poverty rate increased by 11% to 53% earlier this year. Slashing government spending will increase productivity over the mid and long term, but in the short term, it does harm employment and GDP.

Despite this, all the Argentinians I talked with expressed hopefulness going forward. They acknowledge the system had to change and seem willing to bear the consequences in exchange for a shot at long-term stability.

As we await Donald Trump’s second term, it is worth studying Argentina. Milei and Trump have much in common. They both campaigned on eliminating government waste and revitalizing their respective economies.

Milei has a ~13-month lead on us. So if Trump does follow through with his promise to slash federal spending, we can expect a somewhat similar path. Short-term pain is traded for long-term growth.

I think that’s a price well worth paying. The question is: can the U.S. government oversee its own downsizing? We shall see.

Merry Christmas Everyone!

The post Argentina: A Phoenix Rises appeared first on Daily Reckoning.

This story originally appeared in the Daily Reckoning . The Daily Reckoning, offers a uniquely refreshing, perspective on the global economy, investing, gold, stocks and today’s markets. Its been called “the most entertaining read of the day.

Source: https://dailyreckoning.com/argentina-a-phoenix-rises/