The Campbell Betting Syndicate: really, really funny

An important C@W morality tale

If you haven’t caught it amongst all the holiday excitement, there’s a remarkable story afoot of how Alastair Campbell’s son Rory allegedly took a load of high-rolling mug punters for several million quid, and has now disappeared – along with the money, naturally.  It’s said he’s suffering from the mental stress of it all, naturally, and must be left alone.

If these allegations are true, this is really, really funny.  It merits coverage on C@W because (as well as being hilarious) truth be told, mug-punter “investments” are a perennial source of finance for capitalist ventures the world over.  This is an important morality tale.  It is every adult’s job to ensure that they don’t themselves join this gravy train, and that they do raise their children to recognize the danger signals.

And the biggest danger signal of all, flashing away in lurid neon lights, is – “I’ve got this infallible system …“!  For Pity’s sake, a betting syndicate!!  Or, as we should correctly term it, just another Ponzi scheme.  With the outside chance that things work out in the short term, but are guaranteed to crater when, as always, betting against the house doesn’t work out in the long run.

Making things more delicious than usual, the endlessly entertaining, worldly-wise Campbell senior (+ Mrs C) seem to have sunk quite a bit of dosh into it[1] themselves.  We all hope they got out in time ...  *Ahem*. 

Was Campbell Jnr betting against the house?  Well, details are scant, but I think that’s what we must infer: he and his oh-so-mathematical “system” [2] thought they knew better than the big Asian bookies, where liquidity is such you can go large without moving the market.  Well, it is indeed sometimes realistically possible to know better than the odds on offer in a big market[3].  But if you’re so damn’ smart, the risk-free approach is to arbitrage, not simply to indulge in naked speculation.  And then … there’s credit risk on top!  Not only might you not know better than the market – when you do come out ahead, the bastards might not pay!  Which is what, we are told, happened here.  I mean, an online bookmaker in the sub-continent?  Well well well.

Just to round off, read the last couple of paras in that story – the pugnacious press release.  This story, we are angrily told, is one of outrageous breaches of confidence by Master Campbell’s investors, which naturally causes the former to withdraw his offer to compensate the latter.  It’s all their fault, as anyone can plainly see.  

I wonder who on earth drafted that?  The old master is losing his touch, methinks.

We’ll have our own fabulous C@W speculative venture here in a day or so … the 2025 New Year’s Predictions Compo!  Watch this space.

ND

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[1]  It’s not wrong – indeed, it can be truly honourable – for friends and relatives to back their nearest and dearest, of course: I’ve done it myself several times.  But only on businesslike terms that delude nobody, and satisfy everyone before, during and after.

[2] ‘Mathematical’ systems are the worst.  Very few people really understand probability.

[3] I have a friend who genuinely makes serious money on the horses – or did, until he was no longer physically mobile enough to work his energetic system, which is as follows:

1. study the form, exhaustively.  There’s plenty of good data
2. go to the track on the day, and check out the horseflesh for yourself.  It doesn’t take too much experience to spot a horse that is lethargic, skittish, spooked etc
3. arbitrage the on-course odds (knowledgeable) against the Tote (mug punters watching a TV screen hundreds of miles away; sentimental betting on names that sound nice etc etc)
4. rinse, collect, and repeat.

This does entail a very busy afternoon scurrying around, however – plus a little bit of instant arithmetic.  And the credit risk at UK race meets is pretty low.  Incidentally, my man is always willing to be completely transparent: if you can keep up, he’ll give you a precise running commentary as he puffs up and down, and you can emulate his every move – if you’re quick enough.  Sadly, his puffing days are over.
 

Source: http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/2025/01/the-campbell-betting-syndicate-really.html