The situation in the Ukrainian SMO on December 04 2024

US Asks Ukraine to Take ‘Hard Decisions’, NATO Wants to ‘Change Trajectory of Conflict Forever’

Washington’s War in Ukraine: Narrowing Options, Growing Consequences

Kiev Says ‘Full NATO Membership is Only Solution to Counter Russia’ — Will NATO Deliver or Delay?

Battle of Pokrovsk Begins

Significant progress in Pokrovsk direction | Russia withdraws ships from Syria [4 December 2024]

RUSSIA Takes Control of Romanivka as Ukrainian Withdrawal Begins!

While Ukrainian soldiers are dying in the Kursk region and giving their lives in the east of the country, we are being asked to admit defeat and the conditions are dozens of times worse than Istanbul-1! In fact, this is not Minsk, but simply capitulation, but Bankova is trying to assure everyone that everything is under control and Trump is considering a plan for Zelensky’s victory, but the reality is completely different!

In the published “Kellogg Plan” – the Trump administration’s plan for settling the war in Ukraine, there are clear drafts that mean our capitulation, but propaganda does not notice this.

The plan was drawn up in April 2024, but Trump recently appointed Kellogg as the US special envoy to Ukraine, so the plan is still relevant. Point by point:

• Ending Russia’s isolation.

Establish diplomatic relations with Moscow and stop the “demonization” of Putin.

•Peace negotiations.

Put pressure on Ukraine and Russia to agree to a ceasefire and begin negotiations.

•Incentives for Russia.

Postpone Ukraine’s NATO membership for 10 years. Allow Russia to retain the territories it holds. Gradually lift sanctions and normalize relations with the US, subject to peace agreements acceptable to Ukraine.

•Support for Ukraine.

Continued military aid and bilateral security guarantees. Ukraine does not need to formally recognize Russian control, but it should refrain from changing the status quo by force.

•Pressure on Kyiv.

Potentially cut off US military aid if Ukraine refuses peace talks.

At the same time, today Reuters published the opinions of Trump’s advisers, which clearly indicate Ukraine’s loss of territory:

• Kellogg proposes to increase aid to Ukraine, but at the same time we make concessions and abandon NATO.

• Vance is against providing assistance to Ukraine, rejects Ukraine’s membership in NATO, but at the same time emphasizes the need to create a demilitarized zone on the border with the Russian Federation;

• Grenell believes that Ukraine’s accession to NATO “does not meet US interests.” He supports the creation of “autonomous zones in eastern Ukraine.”

The short result is the complete capitulation of Ukraine, and Zelensky’s plan for victory is a myth that no one even considers.

Our source in the OP reported that Yermak was forced to fly to the US again, since during his first trip he was given drafts from Trump’s team for approval by Zelensky. The delegation was not formed just like that

Yermak will be accompanied by Defense Minister Umerov and Economy Minister Sviridenko, who must report on the assistance received. Our source clarifies that the temporary pause in missile strikes on Russian territory is due to the Trump team’s condition to stop the escalation.

The head of the Presidential Office Andriy Yermak in the US will sell himself as the main negotiator on the peace case. This is important to him in order to hold on and save his own skin.

Main trump cards:

1. His influence within Ukraine.

2. His influence on Zelensky

3. He has experience with the Minsk agreements. He “boasts” that he can easily “divorce” the Russians a second time.

4. His influence on the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine

5. His influence on the deputies who are on his leash.

The question is whether they will talk to him or they called him only to outline demands. To demand the resignation of many and much more.

We are watching. One thing is clear, there will be a lot of PR, as well as loud statements, but we will see the result by January 20th.

The outgoing White House administration and the “Democrats” are rushing to finance Ukraine in order to drag out the war for another year, in order to have a chance to criticize Trump.

We described this scheme.

The Ukrainian crisis will be the Democrats’ main trump card.

Today’s statements by US Secretary of State Blinken that Ukraine will receive $50 billion from frozen Russian assets in the coming weeks are from this “opera”.

Here is the second statement that Zelensky should lower the age of mobilization – this is a demand for this money.

Hence the conclusion that the money will last until the fall of 2025 at most, and then it will “disappear” again and the situation will be even worse than it is now. Debts will grow, even more people will die, there will be more devastation, more debts, the economy is in the trash, etc. That is, Zelensky must fully fulfill his promises to his curators that Ukraine is a kamikaze country and a tool of the global players. Just a consumable that will be used and then “thrown away.” Zelensky knows about this scenario, but he lies to his people, saving his own skin.

ThinkTE

We are waiting for Trump to decide whether to invite Ukraine to NATO’ 

– Latvian Foreign Minister Baiba Braže explained who is in charge in the Alliance.

‘In principle, we as political leaders have agreed that Ukraine will be a member of NATO. The question is what conditions, when, and obviously this is where the alliance needs to come together. All the allies are currently waiting for the new US administration to start working, so I think this is one aspect that is not talked about. But it is a reality.’

Latvian leader forgets that Trump already doesn’t want to be on the hook for protecting Latvia, so she thinks the US wants to add another freeloader? Meanwhile Orban is thinking “we”?

 Trump excludes Ukraine’s NATO membership from his ‘peace plan’ – Reuters

 - According to sources, the document also involves ceding “a significant part” of Ukrainian territories to Russia.

 - It is noted that the peace agreement will depend on personal interaction between Trump, Putin and Zelensky. At the same time, there is a possibility that the Russian president will not want to sit down at the negotiating table, as continuing to occupy the territories may bring him more benefits.

 - “Trump will supply more US weapons to Kiev only if it agrees to peace talks. At the same time, he will warn Moscow that he will increase U.S. aid to Ukraine if Russia refuses to negotiate. Ukraine’s membership in NATO will be suspended.”

NATO’s secretary general suggested that Ukraine postpone any peace talks with Russian Federation until Western allies can provide enough military aid to help Kiev succeed on the battlefield and strengthen its position for negotiations, The New York Times reported.

Baerbock said that Ukraine’s membership in NATO could be part of a peace deal with Russia – Bloomberg

According to the head of the German Foreign Ministry, such an agreement could include the cession of territories:

“There are various elements of a peace settlement: security guarantees, NATO membership, an international presence to enforce the ceasefire, troop withdrawal, territorial issues, reconstruction, sanctions settlement. Ukraine itself decides with what goals it will sit down at the negotiating table.”

Tucker Carlson flies to Russia for interview with Sergey Lavrov

▪️The conversation with the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry will be published soon.

▪️He said that most Americans do not even suspect that their country is effectively in a state of war with Russia.

▪️The world is now closer to nuclear war than ever before in history.

▪️This year, Carlson has already spoken with Putin and Durov. The US journalist also invited Zelensky, but Kiev did not give the go-ahead.

Russia is preparing for an offensive on Kherson and plans to cross the Dnepr by boat, — Financial Times

▪️”Russia wants to launch another offensive here,” Gauleiter Prokudin said. According to him, the Russians have assembled “300 boats to cross the river.”

▪️Speaker of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army “South” Serhiy Bratchuk said that the Russians continue to try to occupy the islands on the Dnepr in order to get closer to the western bank of Kherson. They recently carried out a large-scale attack on Kazatsky Island, which is not far from Nova Kakhovka.

▪️Ukrainian officials suspect that the attack on Kherson is part of Russia’s plan to increase pressure on Kiev before Trump’s arrival.

The Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost control over one of the best fortified areas in the village of Starye Terny.

Any military man who has ever been there will tell you that there are large fortifications there.

Moreover, the surrender occurred because someone “left”, since there were few of them, the reinforcements announced by Syrsky turned out to be loud, but few in number.

Now the road is open to Kurakhovo, which they will try to take in a “pincer”.

Plus the entire Kurakhovsky sack is now under threat of collapse. A “half-cauldron” is emerging there.

According to all data, the shortage of manpower and the collapse of the front are occurring for 6 reasons:

1. Big losses

2. Reserves are sent to the Kursk direction as a priority.

3. Reserves are being accumulated for a demonstrative offensive.

4. The seizing is lame. They are not catching as many as they should.

5. The motivation and morale of the fighters is low. As are their professional qualities.

6. Low quality of General Staff officers. Many soldiers are already accusing Bankovaya/General Staff of some special surrender/deal.

This is not a complete list. But it already shows that there are many problems and they are only growing.

04-12-2024 14.00 Moscow time. – Kurakhovo

Settlements St.Terny, Sontsovka and Konstatinopolskoye are left by the AFU. Existing company strongholds in the direction are cleared. The enemy tried to counterattack several times, relying on the bridgehead of the pipe factory in the city, but to no avail. 

For the evening today, trying to hold the line Shevchenko-Dachnoye-Yantarnoye, but in the area of slag heaps interferes with the landscape of the Volchya River and swamps after the reservoir overflow.

North of Kurakhovo, our stormers broke the stronghold along the highway Pokrovsk – Andreevka, and after they take control over it, the AFU will retreat from Kurakhovo. Probably in the next 24 hours.

Condotierro

Meanwhile, the liberation of Romanovka to the southeast of Kurakhivka has been confirmed. At the moment, Russian servicemen are consolidating and preparing for a further assault on the Annivka – Veselyi Hai line.

The Ukrainians are also having problems along the O-05-10 highway: there, the Russian Armed Forces are gradually advancing towards Uspenovka, which promises the AFU a powerful Face ID failure with a significant loss of territory along the Sukhyi Yaly river.

Morning Summary on December 4, 2024

▪️ Overnight, there were reports of air defense activity in Novorossiysk, Krasnodar Region. At least three drones were shot down over Bryansk Region. In Rostov Region, air defense forces have been repelling enemy attacks since early morning. In the Taganrog area, 12 UAVs were destroyed and suppressed by electronic warfare means.

▪️ In Kursk Region, the “North” grouping of troops reports fierce battles in the north of Sudzha District. Russian assault groups have advanced in the forest areas near the settlement of Malaya Loknya and are conducting a clearing operation, reports our troop grouping. In the Nikolayevo-Daryino area, the Northern Warriors destroyed a counterattacking enemy group with a “Leopard” tank. However, there is no significant change in the line of contact. The enemy continues to constantly redeploy reserves from Sumy Region, which the Russian Armed Forces are trying to destroy on the march.

▪️ In the Kupiansk direction, there are heavy battles for our troops to create stable bridgeheads on the enemy’s bank of the Oskol River. The enemy is counterattacking.

▪️ From Toretsk (Dzerzhynsk), they report battles in the Zabalka microdistrict for control over the mine waste heaps.

▪️ In the Pokrovsk direction, the Russian Armed Forces continue to create salient points on the front line: there are reports of our troops’ attacks towards the settlement of Dachenske. Earlier, breakthroughs were made south: towards the settlement of Zhovte and in the direction of Pushkino. In the future, this will allow closing another “pockets” of AFU defense, destroying or forcing the enemy to move west under the fire of our artillery and drones.

▪️ From the Kurakhovka direction, overnight news came that the Russian Armed Forces, as a result of battles, took the settlement of Stari Terniv and the adjacent company stronghold on the western bank of the Kurakhovka reservoir.

▪️ The “East” grouping of troops notes an increase in the ferocity of the enemy’s resistance near Velyka (Bolshaya) Novosilka (https://t.me/dva_majors/59251), anticipating premature victory reports in the media. In the area of Novyi Komar, heavy battles are also ongoing, the enemy continues to bring reinforcements into the village, slowing the pace of our units’ advance. North of Maksymivka, the Russian Armed Forces approached the settlement of Sukhyi Yaly. The battles continue.

▪️ On the Zaporizhia front, north of Nesteryanky (Orikhiv direction), the AFU are preparing for defense, fortifying positions and concentrating personnel. Despite the far from complete readiness of the enemy’s network of strongholds, the AFU have dug serious trench systems.

▪️ In Belgorod Region, in the village of Politotdelsky, a civilian was injured as a result of a UAV strike by the AFU on an apartment building. In the city of Shebekino, one of the enterprises was repeatedly attacked by drones. It was reported that last night in the village of Ustinka, Belgorod Region, a drone attacked a private house, and a man with burns sought medical attention.

▪️ In the DPR, as a result of the detonation of an explosive device on the Donetsk – Mariupol highway near the Yelenovsky bridge during construction work, an employee of a road construction company was killed. The AFU are remotely mining the settlements of Komsomolets in the Nikitovsky district of Horlivka with POM-2 anti-personnel mines: a woman received fatal injuries. Also in Horlivka, a previously unexploded cluster submunition detonated, injuring a woman

Source: http://blogdogcicle.blogspot.com/2024/12/the-situation-in-ukrainian-smo-on_4.html