2024 Predictions, In Retrospect

One month ago today, history was made.pic.twitter.com/00hLkThJcl

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) December 5, 2024

I had a great year.

I’m not going to wait to collect my “I told you so” chips.

1. Donald Trump Wins The Republican Nomination

It wasn’t even close.

This was the easiest call because half of Republican voters are Trump voters and 2/3rds have been White populists since around 2021. The old Republican establishment is 15% of Republican voters. Around 25% of Republican voters are Ted Cruz types who used to be the pre-Trump Republican base. The Republican base in the Trump era is largely people who weren’t Republicans a decade ago. There isn’t a “lane” anymore for an establishment candidate to win the Republican nomination.

2. Donald Trump Finishes Remaking The Republican Party In His Image

Trumpism is the successor of Reaganism.

In 2016, Donald Trump’s victory was written off as a fluke in Washington. Trump’s defeat in the 2020 election seemed to confirm the conventional wisdom among the establishment that the Trump era was a blip and that Joe Biden would restore “normalcy” in American politics.

Today, Paul Ryan is gone. Ben Sasse and Jeff Flake are gone. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are gone. Mitt Romney is gone. Trump crushed Nikki Haley in the primary and won the popular vote when he defeated Kamala Harris. Gradually, the power of the Republican establishment has faded over the last several election cycles (2018, 2020, 2022 and 2024) through retirements and Trump loyalists being elected to Congress. Trump now has nearly unchecked power within his own party.

In 2016, Trump was elected president and instantly became a besieged island in his own White House, which was staffed by Republican establishment types. Paul Ryan and Mitch McConnell ran Congress. Anthony Kennedy was the swing vote on the Supreme Court. Trump will now have far more power to push his agenda in his second term than he did in his first term because he has fully captured and conquered his own party. No one with a future in Republican politics will stand up to him.

3. The Supreme Court Rules Trump Is Eligible To Run For President

No surprises.

It was a unanimous decision.

Democratic lawfare spectacularly backfired in two ways. It both united and galvanized Republican voters around Trump and it set damaging Supreme Court precedents.

4. Sleepy Joe Biden Remains Deeply Unpopular

There was no Biden comeback in 2024.

After Joe Biden’s disastrous debate performance, the internal polling got so bad that the knives came out and Biden was forced out of the race. When Kamala Harris took over, the Biden campaign had him losing to Trump by over 400 Electoral College votes. Biden is now leaving office as the worst president in modern history as Democrats turn on him for pardoning Hunter and delivering the White House back to Trump and his radicalized supporters. Biden’s trajectory was clear over a year out from the election. Trump was consistently leading Biden in the polls which didn’t change until the mirage of “Brat Summer.”

5. Ukraine Has a Bad Year

Ukraine got the bag when it was passed by Congress.

Russia, however, has made its biggest gains since the start of the war on the battlefield. Ukraine’s fate is now in the hands of Donald Trump and a Republican Congress. More importantly, Ukraine has demonstrated once again that it doesn’t have what it takes to “win” the war. There is no reason to believe that Trump and the Republican Congress will back Ukraine for “as long as it takes.”

Ukraine is the next Afghanistan.

6. Israel Goes To War With Hezbollah

A year ago, it was obvious that Israel was gearing up for a war with Hezbollah. I didn’t anticipate how efficient Israel would be at decimating their top leadership though.

7. Donald Trump Is Convicted On Felony Charges

America voted for the “convicted felon.”

Just as I thought, the lawfare against Trump helped him with his fundraising and especially in turning out the anti-system, low propensity voters who he weaponized against Kamala Harris. The funniest part of it all is that all of these cases are being thrown out. The lawfare was a pure donation to Trump.

8. BIPOCs Continue To Drift Away From Democrats

Told you so.

Black and Hispanic men abandoned Kamala Harris and the only demographic in the country which didn’t shift toward Trump was liberal college educated suburban White women. Black turnout dipped again in Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and helped tip those states to Trump.

9. Disaffected Democrats Vote For Independent Candidates

Jill Stein helped Kamala Harris lose Michigan and other key swing states.

10. Democrats Have a Plan To Energize Their Base

In retrospect, the “plan” was to schedule an early debate, force Joe Biden out of the race and switch to a new “Not Trump” candidate after the Trump campaign had spent millions of dollars running a race against Joe Biden. Millions of dollars were spent on celebrity endorsements. The polls were deliberately skewed in order to create the illusion that Kamala Harris had momentum. She was “brat.” It didn’t work and David Plouffe has admitted that Kamala Harris was never ahead of Trump in her own internal polling.

11. Trump Avoids Prison In 2024

It would have been a disaster.

Cooler heads prevailed and Trump’s delay strategy worked.

None of this was obvious a year ago. The judge in the New York case blinked on Trump’s sentencing.

12. Civil War 2 Doesn’t Happen Except In The Movie

It was one of the best memes of the year though.

13. Debates Are Over

I was completely wrong.

Trump debated Biden and it was the most consequential debate in American history. I was half right though in that he refused to agree to three debates with Kamala Harris.

14. Donald Trump Is Elected President and The Revenge Tour Begins

I told Keith Woods that Allan Lichtman would lose his keys. I called all the swing states except Michigan and predicted that Trump would win the national popular vote by 1 point.

15. Democrats Riot In 2024

So far, I seem to have got this one wrong.

After Kamala Harris lost, the “Resistance” collapsed, libtards were demoralized and CNN and MSNBC lost a huge chunk of their audience. No one rioted. Hardly anyone has even protested.

16. Alt-Right Remnants Continue Clowning Themselves

Told you so.

I could name a lot of names here.

In particular, Nick Fuentes became a hot take factory, got everything about the election wrong and ended the year being shunned and ridiculed across the entire Right over the Wifejak meme.

17. Alabama Wins BCS National Championship

Dead wrong.

Michigan won the national championship. Nick Saban retired. Bama had a terrible year.

Source: https://occidentaldissent.com/2024/12/06/2024-predictions-in-retrospect/