Ice Free Arctic Doom Moved Out To 2027. Maybe 2030

There have been all sorts of prognostications of the Arctic being ice free, and none of them have come to fruition, yet, no one has been forced to apologize or been fired. Al Gore famously stated that it would be ice free in 2014.

An Ice-Free Arctic Could Come Before 2030, Study Finds

Ice loss in the Arctic has long been a sign of climate change, but an Arctic entirely free of ice has still seemed a long way off.

Not so, according to a recent study, which found that the Arctic could see its first ice-free day before the end of the decade.

The term “ice-free” is approximate since small patches of ice will cling to Greenland and the northern edges of Canada long after the rest of the Arctic has melted. Researchers measure the amount of frozen Arctic in “sea ice extent,” meaning areas with at least 15 percent of sea ice concentration. The Arctic is considered ice-free when there are less than one million square kilometers of sea ice.

It is hard to predict when exactly this will happen. Models consistently underestimate ice loss, and global weather patterns affect conditions at the Poles. But this most recent study found it could be as early as 2027.

Combining 11 different climate models, researchers Celine Heuze and Alexandra Jahn examined over 300 scenarios for the future of ice in the Arctic. Nearly one-tenth of them showed the first ice-free day occurring within the next 10 years, with the earliest prediction only a few years away. Even conservative models estimate the Arctic will be free of ice within 30 years.

Ah. So, they really do not know, they’re just guessing with their computer models, and, as usual, focus on their “worst case”. But, they give themselves an out with the 30 year prognostication. And if that doesn’t happen, no one will remember this one.

We can prevent this, though

According to researchers, the good news is that “if we could keep warming below the Paris Agreement target of 1.5 °C of global warming, ice-free days could potentially still be avoided.”

So, give up your money and freedom to government and we can “do something.”

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